A fourth-down conversion attempt might or might not fail, but a punt always turns the ball over to the other team.Ģ. Coaches have long been too conservative on fourth down, but particularly in the modern era when offenses are so explosive, possession significantly outweighs field position in terms of importance. There are a few major reasons for the preference toward go:ġ. In fact, our model recommends a go on fourth-and-1 in typical situations anywhere on the field. Indeed, ESPN's model is more aggressive on fourth downs than the average coach. The first thing you might notice when looking at this chart is that there is a lot more "go" area than expected. The chart below details the recommended decision (go, field goal attempt or punt) in a typical situation given a specific yard line and distance to first down: Let's start with what to do on fourth downs. It has been updated with a new 2-point conversion chart.) Late in the game, the circumstances can cause recommendations that are significantly different, of course. Note that in any specific game, ESPN's recommendations might deviate from this chart even early because one team entered as a major underdog or there is a severe offense/defense mismatch between the two teams playing. Think of it this way: A normal game in the first half or even early in the third quarter, where teams are within two scores of each other. Those are when teams are still in the point maximization phase of the game. The following represents a guide to ESPN's decision analysis recommendations based on typical situations. There are far too many possibilities to fit on a single chart to cover them all, but we can still provide a cheat sheet for the most likely scenarios. That's why it's hard! In order to determine the correct decision on a fourth down, ESPN's model - created by ESPN sports data scientist Brian Burke - accounts for score, time remaining in the game, distance to sticks, yardline, number of timeouts each team has remaining, each team's chance to win entering the game and the relative strength of the offense and defense in question. There is not a simple answer because the permutations of game-management decisions in football are endless. Is there a cheat sheet that could help show the correct decisions? No and yes. So what do analytics tell us about these choices? Well, it's complicated. Quantitative analysis can inform those decisions, both for those making calls on the sideline and fans evaluating their coach's decision-making. NFL coaches make tough fourth-down and 2-point conversion decisions on every game day. NFL game management cheat sheet: Guide to fourth downs and 2-point conversions You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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